CanESS

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CanESS

The Canadian Energy Systems Simulator (CanESS) is a new and powerful tool for rapidly exploring a wide range of energy systems scenarios over the long term – allowing for iterative exploration of possible future outcomes whether in a workshop setting or individual use. CanESS is unique in its physical economy approach, providing coherent scenarios to explore the long term impacts of ongoing transitions in the energy economy. This approach complements more conventional econometric energy models that focus on near-term international energy prices and the behavioural response to incentive programs and energy policies.

Background

Canada is home to vast sources of energy that span coast to coast. With our mix of conventional sources such as oil, gas, coal and hydro, unconventional sources such as oil sands, and alternative and emerging sources such as wind and biofuels, Canadians have a wide variety of energy options to meet our rapid population and economic growth. At the same time Canada is committed to reducing the greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to global climate change and the emission of criteria air contaminants that affect human health – both of which are, in part, a by-product of the production and use of hydro-carbon fuels.

Approach

CanESS uses a Dynamic Systems Modelling Approach. It simulates alternate energy system scenarios in the context of the Canadian economy and the demand and supply of fuels for Canada. This contrasts with the life cycle analysis approach which is intended to compare products/technologies over the life cycle of the product/technologies.

Model Origins

The need for a model appropriate for the development of an energy strategy for Canada became urgent as the issues of 'peak oil', greenhouse gas emissions, and urban air quality came onto the public agenda. It was clear that such a model should be transparent and accessible to all stakeholders: federal and provincial government agencies, utilities and energy producers and distributors, and non-government organizations.

Services Available

CanESS has been designed as a platform upon which a wide range of scenarios and sensitivity analyses can be built and, if desired, shared within the user community. To serve this purpose, CanESS is fully transparent with respect to the structure of the model, the data base underlying it, and the assumptions made to arrive at particular results. Further, CanESS has been designed with flexibility to incorporate new structure, alternative data sets, and new assumptions as required for particular analyses.

Applications

The separation of physical accounting from the representation of behavior provides support for strategic analysis, as well as policy analysis. Strategic analysis involves the delineation of possible or physically coherent pathways some of which may lead to a desired outcome or meet overall planning objectives.