whatIf? Technologies is proud to have hosted its first User Conference on February 16, 2012, in Ottawa. Conference participants represented a broad spectrum of whatIf model users with attendees from the Canadian federal government, municipal governments, consulting firms, non-profit organizations, and academia.

During the technical presentations, participants gained insight into the evolution of the whatIf? modelling platform and models over the past 20+ years as Michael Hoffman, CEO, presented a retrospective of the whatIf? modelling platform, and Robert Hoffman, President, presented a history of whatIf? models.  Shona Weldon, Platform Manager and Modeller, offered participants a walkthrough of new features for both model developers and users available in the latest release of the whatIf? software.  The morning session concluded with a discussion of the whatIf? Modelling Platform roadmap during which participants contributed feedback on the software and made requests for feature enhancements.

Several user presentations showcased applications of whatIf’s Canadian Energy Systems Simulator (CanESS).  Participants were briefed on: an initiative for CanESS to support energy system analysis in academic research, a project to explore ultra low carbon emission scenarios, and a study to compare the pricing of electricity from renewable and non-renewable sources in Ontario. Other presentations described: energy use and emissions models in the residential and transportation sectors; the Population and Land Use Model (PLUM); and the Australian Stocks and Flows Framework (ASFF).

The User Conference gave participants an opportunity to learn more about the past, present, and future of the whatIf? modelling platform and to exchange ideas with other users.

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Conference Material

Conference Program (PDF)

whatIf Platform Retrospective (Prezi link)
Michael Hoffman, CEO - whatIf? Technologies

whatIf? Modelling Platform - New Software Features - Slide Set 1, Slide Set 2 (PDF)
Shona Weldon, Platform Manager & Modeller - whatIf? Technologies

Using the Canadian Energy Systems Simulator to Support Energy System Analysis (PDF)
David Layzell, Executive Director -  Institute for Sustainable Energy, Environment and Economy (ISEEE), University of Calgary

Platform Roadmap and Feature Requests (PDF)
Michael Hoffman & Shona Weldon - whatIf? Technologies

The Family Tree - A Short History of whatIf? Models (Prezi link)
Robert Hoffman, President - whatIf? Technologies

Using the Population and Land Use Model (PLUM) to Plan for ‘Places to Grow’ in the Region of Waterloo (PDF)
Virgil Martin, Planning Information Specialist - Regional Municipality of Waterloo

Overview of the National Energy Use Modelling System (PDF)
John Appleby, Chief, End-Use Market Analysis, Office of Energy Efficiency - Natural Resources Canada

Research Update on Trottier Energy Futures Project Development of Ultra-Low Carbon Scenarios
Tyler Bryant, Energy Policy Analyst - David Suzuki Foundation

Energy and Air Emissions Modelling at Transport Canada (PDF) 
Alexandre Dumas, Senior Policy Advisor, Environmental Policy Directorate - Transport Canada

Pricing Ontario’s Electricity Options Using the Canadian Energy Systems Simulator (CanESS) (PDF) 
Tim Weis, Director of Renewable Energy and Efficiency Policy - The Pembina Institute

The Australian Stocks and Flows Framework (ASFF) - Concepts and Applications (PDF) 
Graham Turner, Senior Research Scientist - CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences

 

 

 

The Pembina Institute today released its report, Behind the Switch: Pricing Ontario Electricity Option, by Tim Weis, director of renewable energy and efficiency policy and PJ Partington, senior policy analyst at the Pembina Institute. The report examines the impact on power prices in Ontario out to 2030 of deploying wind generation capacity as foreseen in Ontario’s Green Energy Act relative to a greater reliance on natural gas generation.

These scenarios and their sensitivity to future demand for electricity, natural gas prices, and costs of building new nuclear generating capacity were quantified using the whatIf? Technologies’ Canadian Energy Systems Simulator, CanESS.

For the purposes of this project, whatIf? Technologies worked closely with Navigant Consulting to add two modules to CanESS: an electricity generation module that dispatches demand to installed generating capacity on an hourly basis, and; an electricity costing module that calculates electricity prices.

The 8760 hour dispatch algorithm incorporates a parameterized distributed merit order method. “Must run” generation, such as wind and solar may be assumed to be dispatched when available. Baseload generation technologies are then dispatched, followed by intermediate and peaking technologies. This approach is appropriate especially for systems with intermittent sources of electricity and systems with storage capacity insofar as hourly load patterns can be overlaid with hourly patterns of availability of energy from wind, solar, tidal and other intermittent sources.

In the costing module, electricity prices are a combination of generating costs that are technology specific and system wide costs. Generating costs consist of capital costs amortized over the expected life of the technology, fixed and variable operating costs, fuel costs and other specialized costs. System wide costs are transmission capital, transmission maintenance, debt retirement, distribution and transmission operation, wholesale market service, sales tax and carbon emissions. The model structure can accommodate average and marginal pricing for the full system and for system subsets.

CanESS was created by whatIf? Technologies for use by governments and the private sector to examine energy system options including transitions to low carbon energy futures.  CanESS type models can be developed for other jurisdictions.

whatIf? Technologies is pleased to annouce a strategic partnerhip with Shaping Tomorrow, a firm which helps 12,000+ people and 6,000+ organizations anticipate and better prepare for emerging global opportunities and risks.

Shaping Tomorrow's clients gain fresh strategic foresight, agility and resilience through earlier warning of change, better informed investment and structured decision-making, enterprise-wide knowledge management, innovation and in-time threat intelligence leading to significant competitive advantage.

whatIf? Technologies and Shaping Tomorrow have combined their respective service offerings to provide an unparalled qualitative and quantitative foresighting capability. For more information on Shaping Tomorrow visit their website.

whatIf? Technologies Inc. has teamed with Navigant Consulting, Canada's premier electric utility consultants, to provide an offering to help Canadian electric utilities explore future electricity markets in order to manage power planning uncertainty and investment risk using the Canadian Energy Systems Simulator (CanESS).  This offering leverages Navigant's vast experience and expertise in the energy industry with the unique features of CanESS to analyze the dynamics of electricity markets..